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The Patriots steamrolled their way into the Super Bowl going undefeated for the 2007/08 season. The Chargers and the jaguars did not put up much of a fight and the Patriots coasted into the big game.
Background: Two teams of destiny meet for a chance at the Super Bowl. Everyone watched the Patriots' march toward perfection, and they now stand on the precipice of history, right where everyone expected them to be. In the Patriots' way stands an improbable opponent.
Who would have thought the Giants would be here ... after Tiki Barber's retirement ... and Michael Strahan's holdout ... and Tom Coughlin's spot on the hot seat ... and Eli Manning's struggles? Who would have thought the team that nearly ended the Patriots' perfect season in the "meaningless" Week 17 game at Giants Stadium would win 10 consecutive road games, including three in the playoffs? Who would have thought Manning would outplay Jeff Garcia, outplay Tony Romo and outplay Brett Favre and lead the Giants to the Super Bowl?
The Giants have done it the old fashioned way -- with defense, with a running game and efficient and with mistake-free football from the quarterback. And while Manning's postseason run has surprised many, some of the Giants' biggest contributors are just as improbable. Young players like running backs Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw, defensive ends Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck and cornerbacks Aaron Ross and Corey Webster all have their turn in the spotlight. We figured Strahan and wide receivers Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer would contribute, but who figured that inconsistent kicker Lawrence Tynes would be the man of the hour in New York?
The Patriots' road to the Super Bowl was paved by the performances of many. Quarterback Tom Brady leads the record-setting list but was sub-par in the AFC title game, as was star wide receiver Randy Moss. Complementary receivers Wes Welker, Donte' Stallworth and Jabar Gaffney and tight end Benjamin Watson and running back Laurence Maroney have picked up the slack. The Patriots created a team that defied Belichick's old school background but scores enough points to compensate for an aging defense that carried the team to its three Super Bowl titles.
The Super Bowl 42 table is set. We have the Giants' traditional running team versus the Patriots' wide-open passing attack. We have the Giants' strong pass rush versus the Patriots' traditional run stuffers. We have the team of destiny versus destiny's team.
The Giants Will Run Effectively: The Giants have had a lot of success with a power running game that takes advantage of the size and physical running style of running back Brandon Jacobs (6-4, 264). Against New England, look for the Giants to use isolation runs to go directly at aging inside linebackers Tedy Bruschi and Junior Seau, hoping to wear them down over the course of the game. The Patriots run defense is not overwhelming. They allowed an unspectacular 98 rushing yards per game this season and rank 15th in run defense. Despite the presence of Richard Seymour and Vince Wilfork on their defensive line, the Patriots grade poorly when stopping inside runs — they rank 20th in the NFL against rushes up the middle and 24th when stopping runs off right tackle. New England's defense is designed to stop the pass and the best way to attack a 3-4 defense is to run up the gut and force the inside linebackers to shed blocks by guards and tackles. The Giants are good at that brand of football. The Giants also have 2 capable running backs including Jacobs in the form of Bradshaw – who has the collective speed and bursts to go outside on the Patriots as well. This combo of running backs has got them an average of 110 yards on the ground in the playoffs and 134 yards per game in the regular season. Expect the Giants to run the ball effectively against the Patriots on Sunday. In their first matchup, the Giants had only Jacobs in the backfield and still racked up 79 yards rushing. This game the Giants will have their full complement of running backs to keep this game slowed down and the clock draining – the clock will be the Giants best friend.
Manning Will Step Up, AGAIN: In the three games against Tampa Bay, Dallas and Green Bay — all on the road, mind you — Manning completed 53 of 85 passes (that's 63 percent) for 602 yards, four touchdowns and ZERO interceptions. Against the Buccaneers, he was 20 for 27 for 185 yards, two touchdowns and a 117.1 passer rating. Against the Cowboys, he was 12 for 18 for 163 yards, two touchdowns and a 132.9 passer rating. Against the Packers in the NFC Championship Game, he was 21 for 40 for 254 yards, no touchdowns and, of course, no interceptions and a 72.3 passer rating. In the Super Bowl Manning will look to continue this performance by simply taking what the defense will give him. He has proven he can step up in big games under excruciating pressure and will prove the world wrong once again on Sunday.
The Giants Will Keep Pressure on Brady: The only opponents to have any success against the Patriots down the stretch were the ones capable of rushing Brady's decisions. The Giants took New England to the wire in Week 17 because of their ability to pressure Brady with only the four defensive linemen, not compromising their pass coverage by blitzing. The Giants need Michael Strahan, Osi Umenyiora & Co. to collapse the pocket and put Brady on the ground early. The Giants have the BEST PASS RUSH in the league, PERIOD! Even though they have only got 3 sacks in this playoff run, they have grabbed 5 forced interceptions against 3 solid QB’s in the playoffs. In the regular season this pass rush forced 16 interceptions and grabbed a whopping 53 sacks. They will clamp down on Brady and force him to make ill advised decisions – just look at the way Brady threw 3 interceptions last week and was on his back for much of the day – now he gets an even greater test in the form of the extremely aggressive Giants pass rush.
Point: It’s very tough to bet against the Giants at this point with the way they have been playing over the recent weeks against VERY tough opponents. The media are hyping the youth of Eli Manning and the 2 week layoff that may cool the Giants momentum. But, one thing is for certain, the Giants have found the keys to success at exactly the right time. It all began with the near win at home against the Patriots in a completely meaningless game. Now, it’s a BIG game, in fact the Biggest in all of sports and the Giants will continue that success in the spotlight, despite what the critics are saying about them choking on the big stage.
S.O.S. – Something we pound away at week after week is Strength of Schedule. It’s very important when assessing the dynamics of play between 2 teams. These Giants have faced one of the most grueling schedules to get where they are (Combined Opponent Records: 133 Wins – 123 Losses - .520 Win Rate). Meanwhile the Patriots have played the WORST teams in the NFL and have had the luxury of the LOWEST ranked Strength of Schedule of all 32 teams (Combined Opponent Records: 99 Wins to 157 Losses - .387 Win rate). Despite this obvious factor, Vegas continues to put out ridiculous spreads, even though the Pats are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games and 2-4 ATS against the Giants their last 6 games.
Intangibles: The Patriots have been here before and no doubt they do seem to be the team of destiny this season. The Patriots winning another Super Bowl is like Joan Rivers having another face-lift, it’s no surprise and it’s another notch on the belt. You have to respect the Patriots record this season, either way, but you also have to notice their significant play over the course of the last 8 games. They needed MUCH help from the refs in the Ravens and the Giants game on crazy pass interference calls in the remaining minutes of the game; and let’s not forget the Eagles who came in and attacked Brady all night and almost came up with a huge upset.
But, what about the Giants? This Giants team has endured some of the most negative criticism over the last 2 years of any other team in NFL football. Even still, the critics are saying Eli is too young and the Patriots are too strong. They get no credit, any way you slice it. Even though, they have went on the road against 3 solid teams and pulled the upset through this playoff run. Then the unthinkable happened, Vegas opened the game chalking the Giants as a 14 POINT DOG. This is due to the public perception that the Patriots are the elite team and are making all the headlines, not the lowly, media derailed Giants. The fact is Vegas knows “Joe Public”, who does not know anything about the NFL this season, will be wagering for the biggest game of the year. And, who do you think their money is on? It’s on the media hyped, glory hounds – New England Patriots. Because the straight fact is that the public mostly puts their money on the favorite and in this situation with the Patriots going for a Perfect season, it’s in the best interest for Vegas to have the line jacked up this far. The smart bettors are putting their money in the right place, and that is too the heavy underdogs NY Giants. The line currently resides at 12.5 in most places, and will likely shoot back up to 13 before it’s said and done.
The fact is the Giants can win this game and can easily cover this spread even if they only give it half their effort. The Giants are simply rolling right now and have nothing to lose - the Patriots on the other hand have immense pressure on them to win this game and end the Perfect Season. It's a classic David vs. Goliath story, but we know the Giants from the NFC have a chance to write their own history and put an asterisk by their own Perfect season. The Giants will come out swinging and not let this one get out of hand!
The Pats are 2-8 ATS Last 10 Games
The Pats are 0-5 ATS Last 5 Games
The Pats are 1-3 ATS Last 4 Super Bowl Appearances
The Pats as a favorite of 10 or more points are 6-7 this season
NYG are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games played against AFC East opponents
NYG are 8-2 ATS this season as an underdog
NYG are 11-3 ATS over the last 3 seasons avenging a loss against an opponent
NYG are 5-1 this season playing against a team with a winning record
NY Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games NY Giants are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games NY Giants are 4-2
ATS in their last 6 games when playing New England
