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The Giants went to Dallas and and took down the Cowboys who had no answers for the pass rush. The Packers will await this feisty club in Green Bay and will hope to have another stellar performance from Favre.
Two great postseason stories collide Sunday night at legendary Lambeau Field. The Cinderella Giants, who were playing for their playoff lives down the stretch, will face the Comeback Kid, Brett Favre, who has been this close to retiring each of the last couple years.
The Packers are the feel-good story of the season, relying on a cast of young, unproven players playing around the venerable Favre to claw their way to a NFC North title, the No. 2 seed and now a home game to decide if it really is Favre's destiny to make one more trip to the Super Bowl.
The Packers' defense is young and aggressive. It can stop the run with linebackers A.J. Hawk, Nick Barnett and Brady Poppinga. It can rush the quarterback with defensive ends Aaron Kampman, Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila and Cullen Jenkins. And it has two of the NFL's top cornerbacks in Al Harris and Charles Woodson. On offense, the emergence of running back Ryan Grant has created the necessary balance to make Favre and his band of receivers more effective.
The Giants' defense has caused havoc because of the pass rush of Osi Umenyiora, Michael Strahan and Justin Tuck and a helter-skelter blitz scheme of defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. On offense, the Giants' two-headed rushing attack of Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw has made everyone in New York forget about retired running back/motormouth Tiki Barber. And quarterback Eli Manning has improved late in the season and is playing as well as any quarterback outside of Tom Brady.
Manning Will Take What the Defense Gives Him: There is no doubt that the Packers secondary are stellar and they thrive on making wide receiver’s pay for catching the ball (as we saw last week). The strength of this Giants offense is their ability to grab huge chunks of yards on the ground and slow the pace of the game. Eli Manning has been excellent his last 3 games. Heading into New York's game against New England on the final weekend of the regular season, Manning had thrown 19 interceptions to go with his 19 touchdown passes on the season, including one game against the Minnesota Vikings in which he had four passes picked off, three of which were returned for touchdowns. Since that time, in a narrow loss to the Patriots and playoff road wins over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Dallas, he has thrown eight touchdown passes and only one interception, and none in the playoffs.
This performance starts with the Giants ability to run the football. This Sunday they will be with both starting running backs Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs. Look for the bigger, more physical Brandon Jacobs to carry the load on first and second down, pounding the middle away from Cullen Jenkins' play on the edge. On third down, expect Ahmad Bradshaw to use his speed on off-tackle runs or as a receiver on screen passes to force Jenkins to play laterally from his interior spot and force defensive end Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila to hold his ground against the run. Either way, the Green Bay Packers will look to be in Eli’s face the entire game. As we are seeing right now, Eli Manning is being more patient and taking what the defense gives him. If this is a check down to the running back or the tight end, so be it. It’s not flashy, but he is getting the job done and the numbers are impressive.
The Giants Will Bring Pressure: Favre is smart and a future Hall of Famer. He will not be fooled by the Giants' fire-zone blitzes that worked so well the last two weeks against the Bucs' Jeff Garcia and the Cowboys' Tony Romo. Favre reads the blitz well and finds the hot receiver. He burns defenses that blitzes too often, and Giants defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo should be wary of leaving his injury-depleted secondary so vulnerable. The Giants must rely on defensive linemen Osi Umenyiora, Michael Strahan and Justin Tuck to pressure Favre. Linebackers Reggie Torbor, Antonio Pierce and Kawika Mitchell will be needed in coverage to force Favre to hold the ball long enough for the pass rush to succeed.
The fact is somehow this defense has been stepping up and shutting teams down and it all starts with this talented front four. Yes, the Giants secondary is depleted, but this game will be tough for QB’s to throw as they please with sub-zero temperatures and the frozen tundra. The Packers will look to run more often and the Giants have an effective front four that can stop the run before it starts. Ryan Grant is the Packers primary running back, and he had a huge game last week against the Seahawks, but he fumbled and lost 2 balls early, which doesn’t look good against the Giants tough front four and line-backers. Don’t expect him to run wild like he did last week against the Seahawks.
Point: The fact is it’s tough to bet against Favre, especially in Green Bay. This season they are killing the bookmakers and covering the spread game after game at home. But, the Giants come into this game with heavy momentum and that special ingredient called the intangibles right now. They are playing with confidence on both sides of the ball and no matter what the experts say about this game, nothing can erase the fact that they have only lost 1 game all season on the road and have won 9 straight games. Not to mention, this Giants club has won the last 3 title games they have played in. This will be Manning’s first title game ever and people are expecting him to choke in this game. No doubts Brett Favre and the Packers have been in this situation allot more. But, you have to love the patience of the Giants and the passing game right now. The way Manning is playing right now is hard to deny and is tough to say it’s time for him to mess up. He is playing with confidence, taking what the defense gives him, and minimizing turnovers. These are all the key things QB’s need to do to win in the NFL. The defense of the Giants has the most ferocious pass rush in the NFL racking up 56 sacks to this date and they have done it against damn good opponents – combined opponent records of 133-123.
With the conditions of the field and the sub-zero temperatures, the winner of this game will be the team that runs the football effectively and controls the line of scrimmage. You have to give credit to the Giants and this offensive line as they have been able to produce one of the league’s best run offenses going for 135 yards in the regular season. The edge goes to the team that has a 2 headed beast in the backfield of Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw. Last week you saw Ryan Grant run wild on the Seahawks, but let’s get one thing straight in that the Giants are a much better defense than the Seahawks, especially on the defensive front.
The line for this game opened at 7 and 65% of the betting public are playing the Packers – thus moving the line up a full point today. You have to LOVE the Giants +8 and the way they are playing right now. This is a team that CAN win this ball-game and will give the Packers a run for their money. Everyone is taking the Packers, because of the frozen tundra and their onslaught of the Seahawks last week. This is a huge mistake as the Giants are a much better team than the Seahawks and they are used to cold weather conditions – they play in New York where it’s very cold during the football seasons. The Giants have caught fire exactly at the right time and are in the midst of one of the greatest playoff runs we have seen from an underdog. Not only have the Giants covered the spread the last 2 playoff opponents, they have won outright, killing the books in many places. The 8 points is certainly too much for the Packers to cover against a team this hot, PERIOD!
NY Giants are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games
NY Giants are 12-4 SU in their last 16 games
NY Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on the road
NY Giants are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games on the road
Take the Giants +8 as they give the Packers a true test!
