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The Chargers held out the final drives of Manning and the Colts last week and continue their winning streak to 8 games. The Patriots looked stellar in their win over the Jaguars and are looking the seal their trip to the SB.
QB-Less - San Diego Chargers backup quarterback Billy Volek may be the man in charge of trying to deal the New England Patriots their first loss of the season. Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers is listed as doubtful for Sunday's AFC championship game against the unbeaten Patriots (17-0) due to partial torn ACL and sprained MCL in his right knee. The team originally announced the injury as only a sprained MCL, but on Friday the San Diego Union-Tribune reported Rivers also has a partially torn ACL. Rivers suffered the injuries on the final play of the third quarter while throwing a 56-yard touchdown pass in Sunday's 28-24 AFC divisional playoff win over the Indianapolis Colts. Rivers practiced on a limited basis Friday, and is expected to test the knee on the field prior to kickoff. If Rivers cannot go, Volek will get his first start in two years, and 11th in the last three seasons.
Diagnosis – Even if Rivers gets the start, which does not look promising, the QB will have to lean heavily on LT the entire game. Let’s not forget, he only practiced 1 day this week on Friday. The Patriots are great at taking away strengths of opponents, and this will be a perfect example once they shut down the Chargers running game – forcing backup Volek or wobbly Rivers to the air. This pass rush will be too much for the Chargers offensive line. New England ranks 2nd in the NFL in sacks with 47 on the regular season and best believe they will send the house at hobbled Rivers or Volek all day. Patriots coach Bill Belichick will incorporate a lot of different coverage looks and blitz schemes to keep the quarterback off-balance, forcing him to take sacks and make bad decisions with the ball.
Other SD Injuries - It's difficult to predict exactly how injuries will affect players, but San Diego certainly has an inordinate number of key players nursing ailments. TE Antonio Gates (toe) played last game, but he didn't perform up to his usual lofty standards, catching just two passes while showing diminished explosiveness. He was basically a decoy against Indianapolis. RB LaDainian Tomlinson (knee) was injured early in the Colts game and replaced by Michael Turner. While he's a very good backup, Turner isn't nearly the threat Tomlinson is, particularly in the passing game. Turner isn't as dangerous on screens or as productive a downfield receiver as Tomlinson, who can exploit single coverage against the Pats' linebackers. Simply put, LT is the player who makes San Diego's offense go. Tomlinson likely will play, and he always is capable of greatness.
The Chargers don’t have a shot at slowing down the Patriots' potent passing attack - San Diego's pass defense has a knack for creating turnovers (34 interceptions in 18 games) and features plenty of exceptional individual performers, but this unit is going to have its hands full. The Chargers generally keep opposing No. 1 receivers wrapped up but they have more trouble containing secondary options. An excellent pair of starting cornerbacks doesn't entirely mask weaknesses at nickel back and safety, with several less-than-familiar names having delivered big numbers against this defense. CB Drayton Florence will have an especially difficult time covering WR Wes Welker in the slot.
San Diego's outside linebackers also will struggle against New England's tight ends and running backs. Faulk, in particular, is an extremely productive member of the Pats' passing game, who too often gets overlooked. He contributes in many ways, but he may be most valuable as QB Tom Brady's trusted safety valve and on blitz pickups. The Patriots' screen plays and quick throws in the flats to Welker and the backs act as an extension of the run game. The Chargers blitz often, but very rarely do they bring six pass rushers. However, even sending only five is a dangerous proposition against Brady. The alternative: force the Patriots to mount long drives, limiting their total number of possessions and making it more difficult to score an absurd amount of points. Then again, that approach backfired on Jacksonville, whose defense was picked apart by Brady.
Point: The Patriots no longer appear invincible, as they did early in the season. But playing at home, on an extra day's rest, against a battered Chargers club coming off a very physical game that could be without its three most important offensive players ... the Pats don't exactly look beatable. The Patriots already have proven they have the firepower on offense to score -- and score big -- on anyone. Plus, they have history on their side: New England's last loss in the playoffs at home came in 1978. The Pats have a date with destiny and an unprecedented 19-0 record. Everyone loves the Chargers defense in this game to give Brady fits, but Brady lives for matchups like these and will limit mistakes. New England's receivers drop very few passes and the Patriots rarely commit turnovers. Though the Chargers' secondary actually played well last week, Colts QB Peyton Manning threw for 402 yards and this will be a stiffer test. The problem in this game will be the Chargers playing from behind. The Jaguars matched up much better against the Pats last week with their play style. The Jaguars slow the clock, pound the football, and play smash-mouth football. The Chargers play more of a high paced game with a high flying offense, also built around the running game, but they have viable weapons at wide receiver as well. Thus, when the Chargers get behind, they will pass to catch up, which takes away the possibilities of a lower scoring game, which ultimately affects the final score. This game has the potential to be a blowout with the Patriots winning handedly.
At first, this line opened up at 15.5 and has since dropped to 13.5. The public was all over the Chargers and rightfully so with a 15.5 point spread for a playoff game. But, the problem is this line has dropped 2 points to even up the sides - the right play in this situation is the Patriots minus the number. The Pats are more than capable of turning this game into a rout, especially at home, harsh weather conditions, playoff history, and against a hobbled team with significant injuries to their offense. The Pats are at full health and will look to run up the score in this playoff game as they prepare for the Super Bowl. The Chargers had some things go their way last week and were able to overcome the Colts on the road. That win came at a huge cost, as the Chargers are almost out of gas and there are no pumps in sight. It would be allot of fun to take the Chargers plus the points and pull against the Patriots who are undefeated; but that would not be the smart play. The Patriots will cover this spread easily as they send the underdog Chargers home empty handed for another year!
New England is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing San Diego.
New England is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Diego.
