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The Colts look to defend their crown against one of the hottest teams in the NFL. Manning threw 6 interceptions last time against the Chargers and will try to avoid this opportunistic secondary.
Anything short of a rematch with the Patriots in the AFC championship game will be a disappointment for the defending Super Bowl champion Colts, so this game seems like it could be an easy one to overlook on the way to the bigger one next weekend. But considering the Chargers knocked off Indianapolis in San Diego on a Sunday night in the regular season, Peyton Manning, who threw six picks in that loss, will make sure his teammates are zeroed in on this Sunday's game.
Chargers Offense vs. Colts D’
Rushing: Turner's game plan will revolve around Tomlinson and the Chargers' offensive line minimizing the pressure on Rivers. Tomlinson's versatility propels this offense, and Turner's use of shifts and motion helps keep defenses off balance. San Diego must win on first down to create more manageable second- and third-down situations. In Week 10, the Colts controlled the line of scrimmage while restricting running lanes. Indianapolis finished the season ranked 15th in the NFL in run defense (106.9 yards allowed per game), which is an enormous improvement over a year ago.
Meeks will design his schemes to slow Tomlinson, instructing his linemen to stay square to the line of scrimmage and control their gap responsibilities while asking the linebackers to show a little more discipline when attacking downhill gaps. Expect SS Bob Sanders to align in or near the box on downs with heavy run tendencies, forcing Rivers to make plays and the Chargers' offensive line to hold together. San Diego must find a way to control the line against the fast and aggressive Indianapolis front seven. Expect the Chargers to attack the edges of the Colts' run defense with their Power "O" running game while sealing off the inside with combination patterns that allow Tomlinson to attack north-south.
Passing: Ultimately, the goal for Indianapolis' defense will be to shut down Tomlinson and put the game in the hands of Rivers, and the possible loss of Gates (who suffered a toe injury last week against Tennessee) could be a huge blow to San Diego's passing attack. Gates is the Chargers' top receiving threat, and his presence in the offense is almost as important as Tomlinson's. Opponents can't consistently cover Gates one-on-one, and defenses that adjust accordingly open up the field for Tomlinson and San Diego's wide receivers on the back end. Without Gates, WRs Chris Chambers and Vincent Jackson -- along with backup TE Brandon Manumaleuna -- would need to step up in a big way Sunday. Expect Turner to spread the field with multiple groupings that align three receivers to one side and attack different levels and to feature Tomlinson on a lot of checkdowns to counter the Colts' speed and aggressiveness. Indianapolis ended the regular season ranked second in the league in pass defense (172.8 yards allowed per game), second in takeaways (37) and first in scoring defense (16.4 points allowed). The Colts are much disciplined on the back end of their Tampa 2 scheme, which will make it very difficult for Rivers to find the space he'll need to complete longer passes. Rivers must make good decisions and avoid forcing throws that result in game-changing mistakes.
Colts Offense vs. San Diego D’
Rushing: Thanks to his versatility as a runner and receiver, RB Joseph Addai is the perfect fit in offensive coordinator Tom Moore's system. Addai excels at running the Colts' trademark zone stretch plays, which should place a lot of pressure on the edges of the Chargers' 3-4 front. San Diego's run defense got a boost last week with the return of Pro Bowl NT Jamal Williams, whose absence in the team's last two regular-season games led to massive holes up front. Easily the strongest man on the team, Williams draws regular double-teams at the point of attack. Expect Moore and Manning to attack away from the middle, putting pressure on OLBs Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips to set the edge and forcing ILBs Stephen Cooper and Matt Wilhelm to be disciplined in their gap responsibilities. Indianapolis' offensive line does a great job of using angles to get position when creating running space for Addai. Expect Cottrell to align an extra defender near the line of scrimmage on probable running plays, with a single safety in the hole and the cornerbacks asserting themselves in physical man-to-man coverage from a press position.
Passing: Moore has absolute trust in Manning to identify defenses and put the Colts in correct play selections. And with good reason: Manning is amazing at attacking the weaknesses of opposing defenses. But he can ill afford to make the same mistakes he committed in the first meeting between these teams. Indianapolis figures to continue spreading the field by using its "12" and "11" personnel groupings in passing situations. The Colts' passing attack hinges on a blend of rhythm and timing, and it could get a boost this week from the possible return of Harrison. Although he has missed much of the season and could be rusty, Harrison at least can help create mismatches on the perimeter for other players (WR Reggie Wayne, WR Anthony Gonzalez and TE Dallas Clark). With his ability to attack at all levels on the back end, Wayne is the Colts' most explosive threat. Clark isn't far behind, and he's especially dangerous in the red zone. Expect Cottrell to mix in a few new wrinkles this week, attacking Manning's pocket with single zone fires while disguising coverage’s on the back end. Based on his individual matchups, CB Antonio Cromartie will need to deliver another big day for the Chargers' secondary.
Point: The inconsistency of Indianapolis' special teams can be exposed by San Diego's exceptional units. Ask the Colts defense about Darren Sproles in their first matchup this season. The Chargers have an array of special-teams weapons, including both specialists. P Mike Scifres and kicker Nate Kaeding give San Diego's coverage units time to get downfield and make tackles, routinely denying opponents favorable field position. Kassim Osgood, a Pro Bowl special-teams ace, has freedom on both coverage teams and usually is the first man downfield. He won't have to contain or any other responsibilities beyond bringing down Colts return man TJ Rushing.
San Diego was one of just three teams the Colts lost to during the regular season. When they play San Diego, Indianapolis usually look like somebody else. The scoring efficiency drops, the mistakes compound and the lapses have created some forgettable moments. Of all the non-division teams, other than New England, the Colts (13-3) may know the Chargers better than anybody. Sunday’s divisional-round playoff game marks the fourth meeting between these teams since 2004, with San Diego holding a 2-1 edge.
And it doesn’t take a genius to figure out a winning formula: Stop LaDainian Tomlinson, block Shawne Merriman and figure out how to make plays against San Diego’s stingy defense. But, the fact still lies in that this defense has accounted for the most interceptions in the league and has a formidable pass rush led by Merriman.
One reason the Chargers can't be overlooked is LaDainian Tomlinson. The engine behind their offense and the league's leading rusher can attack from anywhere on the field as a runner, a receiver, or a passer. The maturation of quarterback Philip Rivers has helped, as has the acquisition of former Dolphins wide receiver Chris Chambers, who has a 9-2 record since joining the Bolts. San Diego has also seen a defensive resurgence that is driven by a playmaking secondary that led the NFL in interceptions (30) this season, and a front seven that is tough to run on and puts constant pressure on the passer.
To affect and potentially disrupt Peyton Manning's release, the Chargers will look to hit Manning and get his feet off the midline, making him move around in the pocket and keeping him from setting his feet to throw. San Diego will try to put pressure in Manning's face by stunting Merriman, its best edge pass rusher, into an inside rush. Manning is not mobile and will take the sack or make an off-balanced throw. The more hits Merriman can get on Manning, the happier the quarterback's feet will get. Let the dancing begin.
The fact that these 2 teams are very familiar with each other being non-divisional foes makes this matchup equal in many respects. Everyone has seemingly counted the Chargers out without a chance in the game and we are here to tell you this is going to be closer than expected. The Colts are facing off the field issues with rumors that Tony Dungy will not be returning next year and he has already placed his kids in Tampa schools. All this talk has definitely taken its toll of some of the players and look for that to be an emotional issue weighing on this team. The Chargers have nothing to lose and are ON FIRE after winning 7 straight. They could be the hottest team in the NFL right now and bring in loads of momentum off a tough win last week against the Titans. The Colts starters have been sitting now for over 3 weeks and this will show as they get off the a slow start. The Chargers have an excellent defense that boasts itself on creating chaos beyond the line of scrimmage. Look for the Chargers to strike early and force the hand of Manning to keep the Colts in this game. The Chargers can only hold of the Colts attack for so long, so expect the Colts to get in rhythm in the second half. This is going to be a gritty game that comes down to big plays made in the second half and the Chargers will keep this one respectable, PERIOD. They had much disappointment last season after being ousted by the Patriots in a wild game ending play. Look for the well balanced Chargers to keep focused, pound the football, and stay in this ballgame. This is the playoffs, and players like LT and Merriman will shine!
The line has moved all over the place since it opened, and is resting at 9.5 currently. The betting public is all over the Colts minus the chalk at home, so expect some more movement upward by game-time. We are going against the public and taking the points as a gift – as stated above, due to the heavy betting public taking the Colts, the line will move to 10 by game-time tomorrow that would be optimal time to grab the points!
San Diego is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
San Diego is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games when playing San Diego
Indianapolis is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games when playing San Diego
Take the Chargers +10 as they keep this one close.
