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ATS (+490 UNITS)
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Kansas startled everyone, including themselves, with an 11-1 mark (10-1 ATS) in the tough Big 12. They did it by ranking in the Top 3 in the nation in both offense and defense. They will face a Virginia Tech team in the Orange Bowl that is also a Top 5 defense and which comes in favored. Of note, Kansas gave up 28 points or more in three of their final four games.
Kansas Offense vs. Virginia Tech Defense
Kansas frequently spreads the field with three to four receivers and lines QB Todd Reesing up in the shotgun formation. It's a relatively conservative scheme that features RB Brandon McAnderson and a quick-hitting passing game. McAnderson is a big back who hits his top speed quickly, making it extremely difficult to stop his forward momentum once he builds a full head of steam. It's critical that Virginia Tech gets into the backfield and forces him to run east-west rather than north-south. Unfortunately for McAnderson, a Hokies' run defense that's giving up just 2.8 yards per carry has the personnel up front to get this done. DTs Carlton Powell and Barry Booker have adequate initial quickness and time the snap well enough to give the Jayhawks interior offensive line all kinds of problems. Behind them, instinctive and aggressive LB's Vince Hall and Xavier Adibi excel at shooting into the backfield and they will take advantage of the havoc their defensive tackles create. Of course, the Jayhawks are well aware of Virginia Tech's speed and they should try to slow the Hokies down with misdirection. For example, Kansas can fake a handoff to McAnderson and then throw a bubble screen to a receiver. If Hall and Adibi get caught collapsing inside when this happens, it will create space for the receiver in the outside and it should make them slow down the next time Reesing goes to hand the ball to McAnderson. It's also worth noting that Kansas will spell McAnderson with Jake Sharp. Sharp is a little quicker and shiftier than McAnderson, so Virginia Tech will have to adjust its pursuit angles when he enters the game.
The Jayhawks' spread offense makes the most of Reesing's smarts and accuracy by spreading the field and creating single-coverage matchups on the outside. Reesing generally locates the favorable matchup quickly, allowing him to get rid of the ball before the pass rush can get to him and his ability to lead receivers puts them in position to produce after the catch. However, there's reason to believe he will have to hold onto the ball longer than usual and throw into tighter spaces in this game. Victor "Macho" Harris and Brandon Flowers give the Hokies one of the top corner tandems in the nation. Harris has the toughness and size to match up with leading receiver Marcus Henry, and Flowers is more than capable of holding his own working against WR Dezmon Briscoe. In addition, SS Kam Chancellor weighs 220 pounds and plays with a mean streak. He's capable of delivering the big hit when slot receiver Dexton Fields goes across the middle. With the receivers taking longer to get open, the pass protection will have to hold up longer and that's a lot to ask considering Virginia Tech's pass rush has been one of the most productive in the nation. Though LOT Anthony Collins gets into his pass set quickly and moves his feet well, he'll have his hands full working against relentless DE Chris Ellis. In addition, defensive coordinator Bud Foster will keep the Jayhawks off-balance by bringing pressure from different areas of the field. Finally, it's important to note that there is one wild card here: CB Aqib Talib. Talib has lined up at receiver at times and he's gaining an impressive 22.8 yards per reception, so it's important that the Hokies' stay alert and pick him up if and when he enters the game.
Virginia Tech Offense vs. Kansas Defense
Two-quarterback systems are difficult to effectively implement because sharing touches can affect one or both players' confidence and/or make it difficult for one or both to get into a rhythm. But much like the quarterback situation at Florida last year, neither potential pitfall has been an issue for the Hokies, who started taking this approach relatively late in the season. Sean Glennon is the better passer of the two and he showed great poise despite losing his starting job earlier this season. Consequently, he made the most of the opportunity when he got a second chance. While Tyrod Taylor is a capable passer, he is a far more dangerous runner than Glennon. Keeping that in mind, Kansas' pass rush will have to do a better job of staying in its lanes and keeping the quarterback in the pocket when he enters the game. Further complicating matters for the Jayhawks, they should have a difficult time matching up with a deep and talented Virginia Tech receiving corps, headlined by Josh Morgan, Eddie Royal and Justin Harper. Talib is admittedly one of the best cover corners in the nation and he'll hold up against whomever the Hokies throw at him. The problem is he isn't surrounded by a particularly strong supporting cast, so at least one of Virginia Tech's receivers should be able to get open quickly. Kansas could try to mask this vulnerability by consistently blitzing, because the Hokies' pass protection has been shaky. It's a risky approach, though, because Glennon has improved his ability to beat pressure and Taylor can buy enough time to find the open man downfield.
RB Branden Ore has had a disappointing season and it doesn't look like that will change against a Kansas run defense that's giving up an average of 3 yards per carry, but looks can be deceiving. For starters, Virginia Tech should able to neutralize the Jayhawks' best interior run stuffer in DT James McClinton. Though McClinton is tough and plays with a good motor, he'll have a difficult time holding his ground working against 357-pound LOG Nick Marshman, who is a powerful drive blocker. It doesn't hurt that Ore is at his best pounding the ball between the tackles and should take advantage of the seams his interior offensive line creates for him, either. Secondly, the Hokies' improved passing attack will make stacking the line with eight men a dicey proposal. Finally, it's important to point out that Ore doesn't have to break the 100-yard plateau or many big runs for Virginia Tech to get the win. It's more important that he puts the Hokies in position to sustain long drives by consistently picking up 3-4 yards per carry. After all, long drives keep the explosive Kansas offense on the sidelines, making it difficult for the Jayhawks to get into a rhythm and tire out the talented Virginia Tech defense.
Intangibles:
This Bowl Season has been the most unpredictable in history going on the stats sheet. Many favorites that should have won or at least covered have failed, and yet many dogs that should have stayed within the number, were blown away. As noted above, VT should dominate the Jayhawks everywhere on the field and come up with an easy win.
VT has much to play for as they are setting bowl and BCS records left and right with a win. They also feel the ache of tragedy in the VT massacres and many feel this game will be dedicated to those who have passed, predicting a severe emotional and divine edge to VT.
Kansas had its story book season ruined as its BCS Championship dream shattered against a tough Mizzou team just 1 month ago. Not to mention Mizzou went on to win the Cotton Bowl against a very tough, defensive minded Arkansas team.
Now both teams have much to play for in this game. Kansas has to prove its doubters who believe they play a soft schedule and don’t deserve to be playing VT in the Orange Bowl – whereas VT wants to win one for the VT tragedy and the program history. Needless to say, the intangibles are going to play a huge factor in this game, and by no means does either team get the definite edge here.
Point:
This game is tough to call any way you slice it. On paper, it looks like VaTech should be able to shut down Kansas and walk away with an easy win. This is due to the strength of schedule conflict as Kansas is noted to have a weaker schedule playing in the Big 12 this year vs. the ACC. But let’s get the facts straight. VT has not played a team as balanced as Kansas all season. Kansas ranks #4 in scoring defense only allowing 16 points per game and #6 in total offense going for almost 500 yards per game; and scoring 45 points per game ranking #2 in scoring offense. They have done this against good teams as well against bowl teams in Central Michigan, Texas A & M, Oklahoma State, and Mizzou. Everyone is talking about VT’s streak of wins over good teams in BC, Miami, Florida State, and Clemson. What people have failed to realize is that the ACC is weaker than year’s past. In fact all teams that VT played from the ACC this season fall out of the top 50 in total offense nationally – making their defense look invincible. The only team they played with a decent offense is BC who rank 32nd in total offense. Let’s look at the ACC’s bowl record this year at 2-5 vs. the Big 12 at 4-3. Not to mention VT’s losing its last 3 of 4 bowl games under Beemer.
You have to love the Jayhawks in this game rolling in off an 11-1 season and first BCS appearance. They are out to prove something as their team is completely underrated, especially on their defensive front. They are a quick and physical defense that swarms to the ball almost similar to a small defense we know in the NFL as the World Champion Colts. In fact, if you look at the way this team is built, you see allot of comparisons to the Colts team – not that they have the s level of experience and talent (we are talking about college players here) – it’s just they have quick and speedy defenders who can get to the QB and force turnovers. Did you know VT ranks 114 nationally in sacks allowed, almost 4 sacks per game? VT uses a 2 QB system, but you look at the offense total and they fall out of the top 100 with only 330 yards per game. This team is not balanced, PERIOD! The Jayhawks are getting 4 points currently and will no doubt rise to 4.5 by day’s end due to the majority public playing the favorite in VT (70%). For Kansas, this will be a statement game as everyone in the nation has checked this as an automatic BCS win for VT, even though they haven’t looked close enough to see that this matchup is actually in favor of the Jayhawks who have a very well balanced attack that features playmakers on offense and defense.
The past seven ACC champions have lost their respective bowl games. The league is 1-8 in BCS bowls, with Florida State earning the last win in the 2000 Sugar Bowl.
Let’s go with the underdog Kansas +4.5 as they have much to prove in this highly regarded Orange Bowl!
