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West Virginia deals with two devastating situations as they head to the University of Phoenix Stadium for the Fiesta Bowl against Oklahoma. First, they blew their chance at the national title game by losing at home to Pitt in the Big East final. Then longtime coach Rich Rodriguez took the Michigan job, leaving them rudderless as they face the Big 12 champions.
The Sooners: Bob Stoops has made a career out of lopsided victories over teams with high-powered offenses. He'll get another chance in Glendale, along with the opportunity to avenge last year's Fiesta loss in the thriller against Boise State. The Sooners are a very accomplished defensive team, especially since the Big 12 is such an offensive league this year. Oklahoma ranks 18th in the nation in total offense, but that's only good for seventh place in the Big 12! Losing dynamic freshman tailback DeMarco Murray was a blow to the Oklahoma offense, and Sam Bradford's injury clearly cost the Sooners the Texas Tech game (and a shot at the national title.) Even without Murray, the Sooners can be explosive by both air and ground. Bradford is the NCAA leader in passing efficiency and he's got plenty of playmakers around him. Distributing the ball to explosive playmakers is definitely West Virginia modus operandi.
The Mountaineers: Unlike Oklahoma, the Mountaineers are one-dimensional, but the production is nearly identical. West Virginia rarely throws, preferring to leave the ball in the capable hands of Pat White and Steve Slaton. When White does take to the air, Darius Reynaud -- like Marcus Monk at Arkansas -- provides the run-based attack with one big-time downfield threat. The West Virginia defense usually doesn't get the credit it deserves, but this is a formidable unit that worked very hard to improve this year after feeling like it cost the team the Big East title last season. That is particularly true of the secondary, and that group has improved its national ranking in pass defense from 109th in 2006 to 12th this year despite a nearly unchanged 2-deep. The Mountaineers are frustratingly inconsistent, but this team's "A" game is as good as anyone's. Will they bring it to Glendale? The loss to Pittsburgh, was, as ESPN's Mike Patrick skillfully intoned on the air, the biggest disappointment in West Virginia football history. Never before has a team so heavily favored collapsed with so much at stake. The Fiesta would seem a grand consolation prize, but you have to prepare as hard as you play to beat teams like Oklahoma. Even if the Mountaineers do manage to summon some enthusiasm for their new bowl assignment, the recovery will come too late in the process for the team to be competitive.
Point: The Mountaineers are faced with a choice. They can either stop feeling sorry for themselves and come out and play competitive in this very prestigious bowl game; or they can continue to put about losing their head coach and their last game of the season to miss the BCS championship. Every bettor in the US is lined up betting that WVU won’t show up. 80% are taking Oklahoma minus the points, even though the spread keeps rising due to the gratuitous amount going with the Sooners. We are going against the public in this one as they are usually wrong when they bet heavy on one side like this. The fact is this WVU team is still the same team that only lost 1 game all season up until their must win game against PITT. We are betting that the Mountaineers come to play in this game on both sides of the ball. Let’s not forget they have the nation’s #7 scoring defense limiting opponents to 17 points per game. This defense is tough, any way you slice it, and if they bring their game can give any offense fits.
Bowl History Favors the Mountaineers
The Sooners haven't fared well in BCS bowl games, losing and failing in their last three tries. West Virginia had flunked three straight postseason tests before upsetting Georgia in the 2005 Sugar Bowl and holding off Georgia Tech in last year's Gator Bowl. Not to mention in their last 2 bowl appearances they scored in triple digits. Don’t think this offense won’t have a few tricks up their sleeve, it’s not like they lost all of their offensive coaches. The Mountaineers bring in the nation's No. 4 rushing offense that averaged 292.9 yards while OU boasts the eighth best rush defense, allowing a meager 91.9 yards per game. While the Sooners have faced plenty of spread offenses this season, none have rushed the ball as effectively as the Mountaineers.
WVU has the offense and defense to keep Oklahoma in check.
On offense, Pat White and Slaten will bring everything they have in this game, as their last outing was terrible. One thing about bowl situations is you can analyze every stat and sometimes when things look so good on paper; they don’t pan out in real game-time situations and the betting public will be stunned when WV comes to play in this game. Quarterback Pat White, who is expected to be at full strength after dislocating his thumb in the season-ending setback to Pitt and running back Steve Slaton combined for 2,238 yards and 31 touchdowns this season. Slaton was held to 11 yards on nine carries against the Panthers. The odds of him laying another egg in a prime time bowl game are highly unlikely.
West Virginia brings a defense that ranked third in the nation, allowing just 291.9 yards per game. They will bring more pressure than freshman Sam Bradford has ever seen. Let’s not forget this young QB for the Sooners is still very inexperienced, even though he has had great success this season. WV will bring all kinds of pressure off the edges to force him out of the pocket and cause him to make quick, hasty decisions, which could lead to turnovers. WV will keep up with Oklahoma due to their defensive pressure and ability to create mismatches and turnovers.
The Line: Most offshore books opened OU as 6 1/2-point favorites with the 'total' set at 65. The line has now moved to 8.5 and will increase to 9 before it’s over with. Any time the line moves this much in a bowl game, it’s dangerous, period.
Intangibles: Both teams can’t be too happy about missing out on a BCS championship, so despite what the public thinks about WV’s emotional despair, it’s on the other side as well. Oklahoma has a poor bowl record, especially against underdogs and will have allot of pressure to vindicate their loss last year to the underdog Broncos. The Mountaineers come into this game with the media bashing their program state and they are the whipping boys of controversy. They simply have nothing to lose and everything to gain in this game. Whereas Oklahoma, is under the pressure being a heavy favorite and the shadow of last year’s bowl loss hanging over their head.
Oklahoma is terrible this year as a favorite going 3 – 6 ATS in its last nine games.
Oklahoma is 14-33 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games.
Let’s take the heavy underdog WVU +9 as they surprise the bookmakers!
