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A rare season rematch is featured on Boxing Day when the Central Michigan Chippewas and the Purdue Boilermakers battle at Ford Field in the Motor City Bowl. Purdue destroyed the Chippewas 45-22 in September, barely covering the 22.5-point spread.
Let the Scoring Begin: LeFevour led the Chippewas to a MAC championship and a Motor City Bowl title as a freshman, but took a big step forward as a sophomore, joining Vince Young as the only quarterbacks to ever throw for 3,000 yards and rush for 1,000 in the same season. LeFevour will be lining up Wednesday against another quarterback with gaudy numbers, Curtis Painter. The Purdue senior threw for 3,300 yards and 26 touchdowns this season, but in Tiller's version of the spread, he's not the same type of runner as LeFevour.
When Purdue played Central Michigan in September, a game the Boilermakers won 45-22, the teams combined for 1,048 yards of offense, including 724 in the air. Painter and LeFevour combined to complete 64 of 95 passes, with five touchdowns and one interception.
Purdue Offense vs. Central Michigan Defense: QB Curtis Painter is the leader of a Purdue passing attack that has been one of the most productive in the nation, and he threw for 360 yards and three touchdowns against Central Michigan earlier this year. The question is can he put up those kinds of numbers again? On one hand, the depth of Purdue's receiving corps has been weakened by the dismissal of WR Selwyn Lymon for conduct detrimental to the team. Without Lymon in the lineup, Central Michigan is in a slightly better position to leave its corners on islands and blitz. In addition, Painter doesn't read defenses particularly well or consistently make sound adjustments to blitzes. On the other hand, the Chippewas can't get too caught up in the departure of Lymon. They still can't sell out and regularly bring five or more pass rushers because CBs Tommy Mama and Chaz West are going to have problems matching up with WRs Dorien Bryant and Greg Orton. And if nothing is available for Painter on the outside, TE Dustin Keller is an excellent target over the middle.
RBs Kory Sheets and Jaycen Taylor both reach their top speed quickly and are averaging over 5 yards per carry. In other words, they should make the most of their touches working against a Central Michigan run defense that is giving up an average of 4.1 yards per carry. Making matters worse for the Chippewas, the Boilermakers' scheme is going to cause substantial problems for them. Their spread sets will put pressure on Central Michigan to replace a linebacker with a Nickel back, which will effectively weaken the defensive front. More important, the commitment to the passing game will make it difficult for the Chippewas to move their safeties up in an effort to shore up the run defense.
Central Michigan Offense vs. Purdue Defense: QB Dan LeFevour has rushed for 1,008 yards and 17 touchdowns making him Central Michigan's leading rusher and he faces a Purdue defense that's been vulnerable to the run. One of the ways the Chippewas will make the most of LeFevour's abilities and put pressure on the Boilermakers is rolling him out. Moving him out of the pocket gives him the option to take off and run if his first or second read is unable to get open. If the Boilermaker back seven is overeager and fills in run support before he crosses the line of scrimmage, they risk getting beat over the top by LeFevour, as he throws well on the run and has two reliable receivers. WRs Antonio Brown and Bryan Anderson have combined for 181 receptions this year and complement one another well. If the back seven is too conservative, it will open the door for LeFevour to pick up important yards with his feet.
Central Michigan will also get RBs Justin Hoskins, who is expected to return from an ankle injury that forced him to miss the season finale, and Ontario Sneed in the mix in an effort to keep Purdue off balance. Neither Hoskins nor Sneed is dominant in any one area, but they are quick and they read their blocks fairly well. They benefit from running behind an offensive line that's experienced on the edge and anchored in the middle by red-shirt freshman OC Colin Miller who played like a seasoned veteran this year. However, it's important to point out that the Chippewas struggled with the athletic ability and speed of the Boilermaker defensive front when these two teams met earlier this year. Keeping that in mind and factoring in the ability of both backs to catch the ball out of the backfield, don't be surprised to see Central Michigan supplement its running game with a short passing game.
Point: Central Michigan has won four of its last five games including a 25-point win over Miami (Ohio) in the MAC championship game. Meanwhile, Purdue ended the regular season with three consecutive losses after starting the season off with five wins and has to be disappointed. In addition, the Boilermakers could overlook a Chippewas team it handled earlier in the year, while Central Michigan is looking for revenge. With that in mind, expect Purdue to get to a slow start. The Chippewas have been here before. LeFevour led the Chippewas to a MAC championship and a Motor City Bowl title as a freshman. As the heavy underdog and the fact that they have been in this situation and conquered before, don’t expect this offense to start slow. The fact is they are going to come out swinging in this game looking for revenge for their loss to the Boilermakers earlier this year. This Purdue defense ranks 60th in the nation allowing 390 yards per game. The Chippewas average 450 yards per game, rank 21 in total offense, and are scoring 33.7 points per game. They are going to score in this game, period! You have to love the way this team has been performing down the stretch with heavy momentum coming into this game. They play the underdog role well in this game and actually have a chance at winning outright. But, let’s play it safe and take the 8 points as a Christmas gift from the odds-makers.
Central Michigan is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
Purdue is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games.
